• Pro-XRP lawyer Jeremy Hogan has outlined three possible scenarios for the Ripple vs. SEC legal battle.
• The SEC faces challenges and limited favorable choices as the legal battle unfolds, he noted.

As the Ripple vs SEC battle proceeds ahead, renowned pro-XRP lawyer Jeremy Hogan shared a detailed breakdown of the possible outcomes in the ongoing legal battle. Recently, Judge Torres denied SEC’s appeal of the interlocutory motion while moving the trial to April 2024.

Hogan explains that, after the adverse summary judgment and the rejection of the interlocutory appeal, the SEC is now in a challenging situation with few favorable alternatives. Although the SEC retains its right to appeal, it can only do so once the case concludes with a “final judgment,” which might be a distant event in the future. He predicts three different scenarios for the outcome.

Scenario 1: A Prolonged Battle

Hogan begins by discussing the SEC’s first option: proceeding with a trial against the individual defendants, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Ripple Executive Chairman Chris Larsen, scheduled for April 21, 2024. Delving into the details, Hogan points out the possible challenges and drawbacks that this course of action could pose for the SEC.

“The Judge has left only the hardest part of the case for trial. The SEC could easily take an ‘L’ at trial and have some of its dirty laundry aired at the same time,” he noted. Now that if the SEC decided to stick to this route, the battle could further extend to 2025.

Going into more detail, Hogan anticipates that even after this waiting period, the appellate ruling might not come to fruition until 2026. In the event that the SEC secures a victory on appeal, additional complexities arise. The case would probably return to Judge Analisa Torres for further legal proceedings, potentially delaying the ultimate resolution until June 2027. Hogan humorously assigns a specific likelihood of 39.456% to this scenario.

Scenario 2: Settlement with Ripple Showdown

In Hogan’s second scenario, he explores the possibility of the SEC opting for a settlement with the individual Defendants before pursuing a final judgment against Ripple Labs, which would then be subject to an appeal. He assigns a probability of 32.113% to this scenario.

Hogan notes, “This is the SEC’s best option.” However, his skepticism is evident as he adds, “For that reason, I doubt they do it.” By choosing this path, the SEC would expedite its journey to the appellate court by approximately 9-12 months, saving significant resources and avoiding the complexities of a protracted case.

Following settlements with the individual defendants, the focus would shift to “remedies” litigation, a phase that Hogan points out would be time-consuming. He estimates this litigation process would extend well into 2026, specifying a potential end date: “August 14, 2026, to be precise.”

Scenario 3: A Win-Win Settlement

In the third scenario outlined by Hogan, he contemplates the possibility of the SEC opting for an all-encompassing settlement that would involve both Ripple and the individual Defendants. He raises the potential of such a settlement taking place during a conference, possibly one mandated by the Judge. However, Hogan offers a note of caution, underscoring that “the SEC has shown very little desire to compromise thus far.”

From Hogan’s perspective, a settlement appears to be a beneficial choice for the SEC. He explains, “Settlement is a good option for the SEC. It gets to publish another ‘win’ and collect a big check from the bad guys.”

Injecting a layer of judicial clarity into this path, Hogan notes that the Judge has paved the way for this option by emphasizing that her ruling specifically pertains to the particulars surrounding XRP. Regarding the likelihood of this scenario unfolding, Hogan assigns it a probability of 18.987%.

In his comprehensive analysis, Hogan also acknowledges the potential for unforeseen events, allowing for an 8.675% chance of such an occurrence.

Concluding his intricate examination, Hogan encapsulates the intricate dynamics at play, stating, “On paper, it’s a split decision, but the SEC has no good options now. The power balance has shifted.”