• XRP’s price heavily relies on the upcoming ruling in the SEC vs. Ripple case, as investors remain cautious about a decision that could prohibit its sales to US institutional investors. 
• According to analysts, XRP could rally to $0.55 or decline to $0.45 as it currently hovers below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. 

The price of XRP failed to record a substantial gain on Monday (July 1), as it only managed a 0.23% surge following a 0.70% gain on Sunday (June 30). At press time, the asset was trading at $0.47 after surging by 0.45% in the last 24 hours and 0.61% in the last seven days. 

Ruling on Ripple vs. SEC Case Could Impact Price

Analysts believe the lack of serious movement is likely due to the absolutely “zero” development in the ongoing court case between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Investors are anxiously waiting for a court verdict after the SEC filed its remedies-related opening brief to pursue an almost $2 billion penalty. As Crypto News Flash earlier reported, the Commission is also seeking an injunction to prohibit the sales of XRP to institutional investors. 

One of the key highlights of the ongoing case is the argument of the SEC, which alleged that the post-complaint Ripple activity appears similar to the “unlawful” activities that triggered the lawsuit in 2020. In a rebuttal, Ripple’s lawyers argued that the post-complaint sales of XRP were made to either accredited investors or through ODL contracts.

According to Ripple, accredited investors are exempt from securities laws, while institutional investors who purchase the asset through ODL contracts cannot expect profit. This implies that the initiative at the center of the argument certainly fails the Howey test of profit expectations. 

Regardless of what could be termed as a plausible defense, XRP investors remain cautious as the ruling could go either way. One main area of concern is the possible prohibition of XRP to US institutional investors. With plans to expand into the US market and subsequently penetrate the global market, a negative ruling could trigger a massive downtrend. 

Court Ruling Could Hinge on SEC vs. Binance Decision or SEC vs. Terraform Labs Outcome

Besides this, investors are also watching the decision by the SEC to appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling by Judge Analisa Torres in July 2023. To many, the SEC may backtrack on its decision following the recent ruling by Judge Amy German Jackman to dismiss the SEC vs. Binance case. 

In the ruling, Judge Jackman referenced the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling and stated that the SEC’s approach is not consistent with the Supreme Court’s ruling. 

The court is inclined to agree with the approach of the court in Ripple Labs since the ‘it-is-what-it-is’ approach of the SEC appears to be inconsistent with the clear Supreme Court directives…

Fascinatingly, Judge Rakoff, who presided over the SEC vs. Terraform Labs case, held a contrary opinion, stating that the defendants, Terraform Labs and Do Kwon, failed to register TerraUSD and Luna as securities. Prior to the ruling, the Judge criticized the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling, claiming Judge Torres erred. 

With XRP investors having good reasons to be cautious of their investment decisions, the asset’s price has been affected significantly as it hovers below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. A move through the 50-day EMA is expected to see a run at the 200-day EMA. This could see the price touching the $0.55 mark. However, a fall below $0.4650 could cause XRP to decline to $0.45. Also, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 42.80 hints that the price may fall into the $0.45 zone before making a move into the oversold area. 

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