• The US CPI data and the jobless claims data this week will put light on the next Fed action in May and could determine the trajectory for Bitcoin.
• On-chain data and technical charts currently hint at bullish signs for Bitcoin if it successfully breaks past the resistance of $30,000.

After a confident rally despite the banking crisis unfolding last month, the world’s largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating over the last two weeks. Over the last many days, the BTC price has been flirting around the $28,000 level.

The immediate hurdle for the Bitcoin price ahead is $30,000, beyond which it can trigger the next big rally for the cryptocurrency. However, the events scheduled ahead of this week will play a crucial role in determining the BTC price momentum. In the week ahead, investors should keep an eye on the key macro data.

One of the most important macro data would be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Wednesday, April 12. Somewhere around this time, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market could exhibit greater volatility.

Investors would be on the edge evaluating whether the Federal Reserve would announce another rate hike following the CPI data or if there will be a pause to it. Along with the inflation data, the US labor market data will be crucial in deciding the trajectory of the market. Last month, the CPI numbers stood at 6.0% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month.

For the month of March, the CPI expectations are 5.2% YoY and 0.3% MoM. As per the CME’s FedWatch tool, there’s a 61% probability of a 0.25% rate hike in May.

Bitcoin Investors Should Watch These Macros Ahead

Ahead of this week on Thursday, April 13, the US shall also be releasing data on the initial jobless claims as well as the Producer Price Index (PPI). The forecast for the MoM PPI data is likely to be unchanged at 0.0% while the core PPI could surge to 0.3%.

On the other hand, the forecast for the initial jobless claims will be 216,000, which was previously at 228,000. Last week’s data on the US labor market and the ISM private sector purchasing managers index figures showed the visibility of some cracks in the US economy.

Later on Friday, April 13, the US will be releasing the retail sales data. For the last month of March, retail sales are likely to drop by 0.5% MoM while the core retail sales are likely to drop by 0.4% MoM.

Technical and On-Chain Data for Bitcoin

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales have continued their accumulation over the last week which could be a bullish sign for investors.

Another on-chain data i.e. the adjusted SOPR for Bitcoin has moved past 1 hinting that the next bull run shall begin very soon.

Popular crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe expects the BTC price to surge to $40K once its breaks past the resistance of $30,000. He wrote: “Bitcoin still acting into the higher timeframe resistance at $28-30K. Powell’s policy of hiking interest rates most likely coming to an end -> ingredient for relief. If #Bitcoin breaks $28-30K, $40K and $46K are next + likely substantial breakouts of altcoins due to confidence”.

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