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- Analysts speculate that the SEC could approve several Bitcoin ETFs between January 8 and January 10, prompting significant changes in the cryptocurrency market.
- The SEC is reviewing ETF proposals from the likes of Franklin Templeton and Hashdex until January 5, which indicates the possibility of a major approval.
Have you ever wondered what’s going on with the SEC and cryptocurrencies? It looks like January 2024 could be an important month. According to industry experts, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may soon approve several Bitcoin spot ETFs. Why is this important? Because it will be a game-changer for cryptocurrency investors.
James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, suggested that this approval could come between January 8 and January 10. The reason being, January 10 is the last deadline for the SEC to decide on the proposals from Ark Invest and 21Shares. But beware, there are those who believe that the SEC could allow the launch of multiple Bitcoin ETFs simultaneously, pending the end of the comment period of the other proposals.
Window is officially Jan 5th to Jan 10th. Really this means that any potential approval orders are going to come on either Monday Jan 8, Tuesday Jan 9, or Wednesday Jan 10. Mark your calendars people. https://t.co/8ob8Y6pgU5
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) December 1, 2023
The SEC is collecting public feedback on the proposed Franklin Templeton and Hashdex ETFs until January 5. This is interesting because, according to Scott Johnsson of Van Buren Capital, the fact that the SEC is moving faster than usual could indicate that they want to line up multiple approvals at once, after January 5.
Johnsson notes that since the SEC will not be approving these ETFs over the weekend, the January 8-10 time frame makes sense. However, he cautions that while there are only a few days to review the comments, there may not be anything unique to analyze. And in the worst-case scenario, approval will come soon after the first batch.
Bitcoin ETF Approval at Stake
But not all is decided. The SEC could still reject the current wave of proposed Bitcoin spot ETFs, which includes products planned by giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco. So far, an SEC spokesperson declined to comment on the matter.
-SEC has no other *major* hangups outside of share creation/redemption
-Products ready to launch; backend ETF infrastructure in place
-Potential approval date any time after Jan 2nd
-Batch approval favors largest issuers, but probably only way for SEC to go at this point
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) December 13, 2023
Analyzing Nate Geraci’s tweet, the statement that they are “very close” suggests that Valkyrie Funds could be one of the first to receive approval, which would be a huge step in the cryptocurrency world and a strong indicator of Bitcoin market maturation.
The comment about creating ETFs using cash (“cash creates”) is equally significant. This implies that these ETFs would facilitate new ways to invest in Bitcoin, perhaps attracting a wider group of investors who prefer more traditional and regulated exposure to cryptocurrencies.
The point about COIN SSA (Coinbase Securities Advisory Service) being less relevant today suggests a shift in regulatory focus and market priorities. This may indicate that regulators and market participants are finding new ways to address and mitigate the risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies.
In addition, Geraci mentioned that the SEC has no major issues beyond the creation and redemption of shares. This is very important, as the creation and redemption of shares is a key aspect of ETF operations. If this process is handled efficiently, it could pave the way for a wide variety of Bitcoin-based investment products.
As for the potential approval date, Geraci suggests it could be anytime after January 2. This gives investors and companies some interim time to prepare for the potential introduction of these products.
Finally, the mention of batch approval, which would favor larger issuers, although perhaps the only viable avenue for the SEC at this point, raises questions about fairness and market access for smaller issuers. However, this could be a reflection of the SEC’s need to efficiently manage large numbers of proposals.
The analysis is optimistic
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts are optimistic, believing that there is a 90% chance that the SEC will approve these funds on January 10, citing Grayscale Investments’ court victory against the SEC in August and the ongoing issuer dialog with the agency.
So, are you ready to see what will happen? January could be the month that the cryptocurrency world makes a big leap forward, or maybe we’ll face more uncertainty. Whatever happens, keep your eyes open!
