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- Analysts, including Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, suggest that the approval of spot Solana ETF has a “snowball’s chance in hell” due to ongoing SEC concerns.
- In contrast to the U.S., Brazil’s Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) has approved its second Solana ETF within a month.
The chances of spot Solana ETF approval in the United States seem bleak at this point, with the CBOE website recently removing the 19b-4 filings from VanEck and 21Shares, per the Crypto News Flash report. Amid these developments, Bloomberg ETF strategist and analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the Solana ETFs have a “snowball’s chance in hell of approval.”
Amid the action by CBOE, market analysts have been predicting that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly rejected the filings before undergoing formal consideration amid the regulator’s concerns surrounding Solana’s “security” status.
Nice flow chart showing how the Solana ETF filings never made it past Step 2 (the SEC failed to ack them) = DOA. So the exchanges withdrew 19b-4s altho the issuers’ S-1s are still active. A snowball’s chance in hell of approval unless there’s change in leadership via @JSeyff pic.twitter.com/e8BNKT33KH
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 20, 2024
In a subsequent tweet, Balchunas said that the approval odds largely depend on the results of the 2024 US Presidential Elections. “Yes, near-zero chance in 2024, and if Harris wins, there’s prob near-zero chance in 2025 too. Only hope IMO is if Trump wins,” said Balchunas.
What’s the Key Factor Behind Approving Solana ETF?
The approval of the spot Solana ETFs in the United States hinges on the classification of Solana as a commodity. Matthew Sigel, the Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, defended Solana, stating that it is a commodity like Bitcoin and Ethereum, per the CNF report. In a post on Tuesday, August 20, Sigel wrote:
This belief is informed by evolving legal perspectives, where courts and regulators have begun to recognize that certain crypto assets may function as securities in primary markets but behave more like commodities in secondary markets.
Despite the CBOE removing the 19b-4 filings for Solana ETF from the website, Sigel stated that VanEck’s S-1 filing is “still in play.” “Remember that Exchanges like Nasdaq & CBOE file rule changes (19b-4) to list new ETFs. Issuers like VanEck are responsible for the prospectus (S-1). Ours remains in play,” he wrote.
Brazil Approves the Second Solana ETF
In another development, the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) approved the second Solana ETF for the country in less than a month. Also, per CVM’s central database, the new SOL ETF is currently in the pre-operational phase and will be offered by Brazil-based popular ETF manager Hashdex in partnership with the local investment bank BTG Pactual. With nearly $1 billion in assets under management, Hashdex launched the spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum this year in the US market.
Crypto News Flash reported that earlier this month, CVM approved the spot Solana ETF from Brazil-based asset manager QR.
