• Matrixport is bullish on Bitcoin and forecasts a potential 65% run to $56,000 before the end of 2023.
• The projection is hinged on Bitcoin’s historical pattern over the past 7 years.

Crypto services provider Matrixport has released an optimistic forecast, predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach as high as $56,000 by the end of the year following a potentially strong end-of-year performance.

Matrixport’s Bold Forecast

According to reports, Matrixport’s forecast is based on historical trends and the application of the famous adage modeled along Sir Isaac Newton’s third law of motion, “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” 

This prediction has captured the attention of the crypto community and investors alike, reigniting hopes of a strong year-end performance for Bitcoin.

Markus Thielen, the head of research and strategy at Matrixport, recently shared his analysis with clients, stating: 

If bitcoin is up at least +100% by this time of the year, then there is a +71% chance or five in seven that bitcoin would finish the year higher with average year-end rallies of +65%. As Bitcoin tends to reach its peak by December 18th, we could call the six to seven weeks from early November to mid-December Bitcoin’s Santa Claus Rally.

Thielen’s analysis suggests that if Bitcoin follows historical patterns and experiences a 65% year-end rally, the cryptocurrency could trade at over $56,000 by the close of the year. “Based on these statistics, Bitcoin continues to offer upside potential, and a +65% year-end rally would lift prices back to $56,000,” Thielen said.

Bitcoin’s Outstanding Historical Performance

The concept of a “Santa Claus Rally” in the world of cryptocurrencies may sound whimsical, but it carries a practical significance. Matrixport’s analysis, based on historical data and patterns, suggests that a 65% year-end rally would be in line with Bitcoin’s past performance, lifting prices to the coveted $56,000 mark.

The historical data reveals a compelling pattern. Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has recorded significant gains of at least 100% in the first 10 months of the year. In these seven years, Bitcoin has rallied by an average of 65% during the final eight weeks of the year.

Thielen further emphasized the statistics, highlighting that when Bitcoin goes parabolic by at least +50% by the end of October, there is, on average, “a 78% chance that Bitcoin will advance even more into year-end. Bitcoin rallied another +68% until year-end on seven of nine previous occasions.” 

It is, however, essential to keep in mind that past performances are not an exact predictor of future results. Nevertheless, the probability of history repeating itself remains high, especially considering the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for the second quarter next year.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $35,000, representing a remarkable 114% increase year-to-date. Several factors contribute to this impressive gain, and they all play a pivotal role in the potential surge toward $56,000 by the end of the year. 

Some of these factors include spot Bitcoin ETF optimism hinging on speculations that the Federal Reserve’s liquidity tightening cycle has peaked, and the enduring demand from investors is beginning to gain traction.