- Ki Young Ju, the founder of blockchain analytics leader Crypto Quant, says that Bitcoin will be used as a currency by 2030.
- Ju says that by the decade’s end, BTC’s volatility will have significantly dropped as mining difficulty and institutional interest rise.
Will Bitcoin ever cease to be a speculative investment and become the currency that Satoshi Nakamoto originally designed it to be? According to one industry expert, this payments vision will be a reality by 2030.
Satoshi described Bitcoin in the whitepaper as a “purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash,” revealing he intended BTC to be used for transactions, not as digital gold or as a hedge against inflation. Ki Young Ju, the founder of blockchain analytics company Crypto Quant, says that we’re closer to achieving this than most people anticipate.
“Bitcoin will likely be used as a currency around 2030,” he wrote on X.
#Bitcoin will likely be used as a "currency" around 2030.
Bitcoin's mining difficulty, which reflects the intensity of competition, has consistently hit all-time highs, increasing by 378% over the past three years.
While 50 BTC could be mined with a single PC in 2009, it has… pic.twitter.com/lY8pRreZCl
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 24, 2024
His argument relies on the rise of BTC’s mining difficulty, which has surged by over 350% in the past three years. This mining difficulty has made it nearly impossible for small home-based miners to compete and made it a preserve of the mining giants, some of whom trade publicly.
Ju posits:
As institutional involvement grows, entry barriers rise, reducing Bitcoin’s volatility and its appeal as an investment asset. By the 2028 halving, Bitcoin’s potential as a low-volatility currency will increase.
Bitcoin as Currency
However, a dip in volatility alone isn’t enough to make BTC a currency. Ju adds that by 2030, payment companies led by Stripe will make it easier to make payments with crypto, starting with stablecoins. Stripe recently launched USDC payments for users in 150 countries, lending credence to Ju’s argument.
Ju believes that other major fintechs will join Stripe, and “with regulations in place, they are expected to drive the mass adoption of stablecoins within three years.”
Ju’s argument also rests on anticipation that crypto wallets will become more popular as stablecoin adoption rises. Today, using a crypto wallet can be complex for newbies, especially since they have to be responsible for their private keys and seed phrases, and losing these could be catastrophic. Wallet developers must find ways to make it much easier and convenient for users to hold crypto.
Ju adds:
By around April 2028, during the next halving, Bitcoin’s potential use as a “currency” will start to be seriously discussed as volatility decreases further and the ecosystem matures.
Ju’s argument is ambitious, to say the least. For one, few look at BTC as a currency; in fact, its selling point with most investors is that it’s digital gold. Changing this narrative would be difficult, and it could lead to a loss of interest from investors.
Even if everything panned out, BTC is still not equipped to handle massive transactions. Take Visa, for instance: in 2023, the payments giant processed 720 million transactions daily. BTC, on the other hand, processes less than 0.1% of this.
Still, through L2s and wrapped BTC on other blockchain networks, Bitcoin can scale.
BTC trades at $67,561 at press time, gaining 2% in the past day for a $1.34 trillion market cap.
