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- Global liquidity challenges and U.S. fiscal strategies are key factors influencing the 2025 crypto market’s uncertain start.
- Mid-year central bank interventions could determine the trajectory of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies amid macroeconomic volatility.
The crypto community started 2025 with high aspirations for a strong bull market, fueled by historical tendencies and confidence about Bitcoin’s first-quarter performance. But as Jay Hamilton, the host of the Milk Road Show, pointed out, the year has begun more violently than predicted.
With Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital, providing insights, the conversation focused on the main macroeconomic forces influencing the markets, including issues with liquidity and geopolitical concerns.
Key Drivers Behind Crypto Market’s Slow Start in 2025
Michael Howell underlined many elements behind the late start of the crypto market in 2025. First, when politicians struggle with budgetary expenditures and funding policies, the U.S. financial sector suffers major challenges.
Howell pointed to past short-term funding initiatives by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that would cause long-term restrictions even when they temporarily pushed money into the markets. This change in funding approach affects liquidity cycles, which mostly influence asset markets, including cryptocurrency.
Second, changes in the bond market of China add still another level of complication. The dramatic drop in Chinese bond rates points to a debt deflationary environment, therefore aggravating world liquidity problems.
As Howell clarified, China’s reliance on the U.S. currency increases financial pressures, which drives the People’s Bank of China to make forceful liquidity changes. These actions might have worldwide knock-on consequences, including in the crypto markets.
Finally, Howell presented the idea of a rising “debt maturity wall.” Most of the debt created under the COVID-19 low-interest environment will mature by mid-2025. The need to refinance this debt could deplete financial systems’ liquidity, therefore affecting speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Liquidity’s Central Role in Market Dynamics
Still a major focus in Howell’s study is liquidity. Though the Federal Reserve professes to be quantitative tightening (QT), Howell pointed out that during the past year the Fed has subtly added liquidity into markets.
This pattern seems unsustainable, though, given liquidity infusions tapered off as 2025 advances. According to Howell, central banks—including the Federal Reserve—will finally have to implement quantitative easing (QE) policies once more to help stabilize the markets.
Howell’s analysis revealed a clear relationship between Bitcoin’s performance and world liquidity levels. By means of a statistical analysis, he demonstrated that variations in liquidity usually cause swings in BTC prices spanning many weeks. This supports the theory that the main driver of crypto asset values is liquidity—more than any other element.
Central Banks’ Influence on 2025 Market Trajectory
Looking ahead, Howell sees a wild first half of 2025 as markets negotiate these macroeconomic ambiguities. He underlined how central bank actions help to define the course of world markets.
Should liquidity injections pick back up midway through the year as Howell predicts, it may revive bullish momentum for the crypto market.
Howell also mentioned long-term structural problems, including the debt load worldwide and fiscal deficits that probably call for ongoing monetary expansion. This emphasizes to investors the need of owning assets like gold and Bitcoin, which act as hedges against inflation of the money value.
Ultimately, although the 2025 crypto bull run is far from ended, its success depends on important macroeconomic events. As Howell rightly pointed out, “Markets are driven by liquidity,” and central banks will be rather important in determining the direction of the year.
