• The Grayscale and SEC Bitcoin ETF legal tussle is nearing its end.
• Industry analysts are projecting an end this week.

A verdict is expected this week from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on the lawsuit between investment management firm Grayscale and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). After so much speculation about the potential of having Grayscale’s Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) application as well as that of other asset managers approved, this verdict is pivotal to Bitcoin as well as to the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Based on the screenshot of a spreadsheet shared by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart with the caption “Tomorrow is 8/15”, the next SEC deadline for a decision on Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF is August 15th. Seyffart added that 8/15 has been his theoretical date for the Grayscale lawsuit verdict. This also refers to his timeline for a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Furthermore, he explained that his prediction was just an educated guess as he did not carry out as much detailed analysis as Davis Polk’s finance attorney Scott Johnson. At the same time, Seyffart admitted that he had several conversations with Elliott Z. Stein about possible timelines. 

The popular senior litigation analyst at Bloomberg was quick to respond to Seyffart’s comment light-heartedly. 

“Hope you’re both wrong only because I’m out of pocket tomorrow after 10:30 am,” he said. Also, Seyffart replied, “Just text Srinivasan real quick. If it’s planned for tomorrow I’m sure he’ll wait at least a couple days for you if you ask nicely. That’s how things work down there. Right.”

Grayscale Bitcoin ETF Case Exceeds 160 Days

Just as Seyffart had implied, Scott Johnson has done so much work around the matter. He analyzed past data and came to the conclusion that 30 out of 32 cases from March ’21/’22 were resolved within 160 days of their oral arguments. Additionally, he stated that almost all March 2022 cases presented to the DC Circuit Court received their verdict within 154 days, with only a single exception of 170 days.

In the case of Grayscale, its oral argument had taken place way back in March 2023, more than 160 days ago, hence the analysis applies to its timeline. It is also worth noting that nearly all March cases have been attended to, with only a few left pending. 

Johnson went ahead to emphasize the significance of August, citing that it is a time when District courts see a transition of law clerks. He highlighted this transition as a trigger for judges to want to conclude outstanding cases before a shuffle is conducted. More speculations and predictions have come to light hinting that a decision may likely come on Friday, August 18th instead. Eric Balchunas, another senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg said a decision could either come on Tuesday or on Friday by 11 am.

Investors may choose to begin to increase their BTC holding in preparation for a verdict that is likely to be closer than expected as well as favorable for Grayscale which will be a win for the crypto ecosystem.