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- Raoul Pal says that there’s a 60% possibility of Bitcoin hitting up to $200,000 in the current bull cycle as the halving, elections and debt refinancing cycles merge next year.
- The former Goldman Sachs analyst says that there’s also a 20% chance that Bitcoin will go on a parabolic run that takes it to new and unexpected heights.
Bitcoin is ending a turbulent year on a high, trading just north of $42,000 at press time, amid a 4.2% drawback over the weekend. The number of BTC wallet addresses in the profit zone hit a new number at over 40 million, but according to one former Goldman Sachs executive, the top crypto is just getting started and will hit $200,000 in the next year.
Raoul Pal joined renowned crypto journalist and former New York Times and Forbes editor Laura Shin on her Unchained Crypto podcast to discuss the Bitcoin price, the parallel financial system that crypto has created, the anticipated Ethereum and Bitcoin spot ETFs and more.
Raoul believes that we’re experiencing a “much earlier ramp in the cycle than we’ve seen in the past. It’s very rare to be this strong this early in the cycle.” If this continues and the other conditions align, such as monetary easing, we could be heading into uncharted territories.
Additionally, next year’s BTC halving is set to coincide with the election and debit refinancing cycles. The latter is when governments replace existing debts with new debts whose terms are friendlier. He expects this to push BTC to new heights in 2024 and a strong 2025 as well, before we get a retracement in 2026.
The 3 Bitcoin (BTC) Price Predictions
Pal believes that there are three possible outcomes. The first, which is the most conservative, is BTC hitting $200,000.
He told Laura:
The 60% probability is we have a very traditional cycle and that pushes BTC up to the $100,000 to $200,000 range and all the other assets accordingly where they are on the risk curve.
For Bitcoin to hit the $200,000 prediction, it would have to gain 375% from its current level. It would also translate to a market cap of $3.94 trillion and would make it the second-most valuable asset in the world after gold which stands at $13.5 trillion.
While this is a bold prediction, it wouldn’t be the first time Bitcoin has made such massive gains. At the height of the pandemic in late 2020, it went from $10,000 in September to $57,000 by March the next year.
Pal also believes that there’s a 20% chance that this bull cycle signifies something bigger—massive global Bitcoin adoption. This would translate into more capital coming into the space and the price of Bitcoin shooting past the $200,000 level into new price territories.
There’s a third possibility in which the current bull cycle is front-loaded “and in fact, it’s shorter but more violent in 2024.”
However, Pal, who is currently the CEO and founder of financial education platform Real Vision, says that the 60% probability of Bitcoin shooting up to trade anywhere between $100,000 and $200,000 is the most likely scenario.
