• Former BitMEX CEO predicts that Bitcoin could surge to between $75k to $1 million by 2026.

• His prediction is linked to several factors including interest rates, spot Bitcoin ETF approval, etc.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $27,728.05. With a bullish market sentiment, the asset has surged by 4 percent in the last seven days and 0.68 percent in the last 24 hours. According to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, the price could trade between $750,000 to $1 million by 2026. While many forecasters may not oppose the possibility of the asset going this high, reaching this point by 2026 could be a huge surprise. 

To Hayes, several factors could make this possible. The first is the possibility of a financial crisis causing rates to drop to zero. On the contrary, Bitcoin price could hit an unimaginable height when rates increase but not as fast as government spending. This, coupled with the halving event next year could send the price to $70,000 by the end of 2024. 

In an essay titled “Are We There Yet?” Hayes challenged the common perception that Bitcoin and interest rates are inversely correlated. According to him, it is important to pay attention to real rates in relation to the rapid growth of the US economy, instead of the nominal rates by the Federal Reserves. He also stated that robust GDP and government spending have made yields on government bonds negative. This pushes investors to assets like Bitcoin.

What happens if the Fed keeps raising rates? Can the $BTC bull market gain steam? “Are We There Yet?” is an essay exploring that question.

Hayes Predicts the Impact of Bitcoin ETF and China’s Crypto Involvement

Hayes also stressed on the Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) possible approval in the US which could drive millions of dollars into the market. He believes that this product would not only make waves in the US but also, in Europe and possibly Hong Kong. This significant surge could have a Ripple effect on other financial assets such as stocks. 

Another factor that could trigger this bull run is China’s involvement in Bitcoin. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has banned all crypto-related transactions as part of the plans to fight financial crimes, stabilize the country’s financial system, and prevent the negative impact of Bitcoin mining which took center stage in 2021.

Regardless, China’s active Over-The-Counter crypto market was around $86.4 billion in volume as of October 2, a little more than the $64 billion of that of Hong Kong. Even so, the value of transactions is said to have dropped due to the crackdowns. The large OTC market shows that Beijing has a degree of tolerance to crypto according to Chainalysis. 

The increasingly close relationship between China and Hong Kong leads some to speculate that Hong Kong’s growing status as a crypto hub may signal that the Chinese government is reversing course on digital assets, or at least becoming more open to crypto initiatives.

As of press time, most of the leading crypto assets showed signs of recovery with Ethereum up by 1 percent in the last seven days and trading at $1,644.12. In the last 24 hours, ETH has surged by 0.46 percent. 

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