• Examine the SEC’s intensified scrutiny of Ethereum and its potential impact on the approval of Ethereum ETFs.
• Uncover three distinct theories by a crypto lawyer about how the SEC’s investigation could influence the crypto landscape.

Recent adjustments on the Ethereum Foundation’s website indicate heightened scrutiny from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This nonprofit organization, responsible for Ethereum’s governance and development, witnessed a removal of phrases suggesting confidential investigations from its website on February 26.

Freelance Ethereum developer Pablo Pettinari made these changes, later stating:

The Ethereum Foundation (Stiftung Ethereum) has never been contacted by any agency in a manner necessitating nondisclosure. Stiftung Ethereum will openly reveal any government agency inquiries beyond regular business dealings.

Before diving into the three theories, it’s crucial to note a previous CNF report highlighting the slim chances of the SEC approving an Ethereum spot ETF. A Bloomberg ETF analyst drastically reduced the probability from a 35% chance in May, reflecting growing skepticism.

Theory 1: A Strategic Stance Against Ethereum ETFs

In light of the SEC’s probe, Bloomberg’s ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tweeted, reflecting on the prospects of Ethereum spot ETFs: He d say this was a good sign but as far as he know the Staff has not given any comments yet to the issuers, which is not a good sign as we past when they gave comments on btc ETFs.

This implies a dim outlook for Ethereum ETFs compared to Bitcoin. Crypto lawyer Johnsson supports this view, suggesting that the SEC may use an argument based on the non-correlation between spot and futures markets to deny Ethereum ETFs. Johnsson’s tweet elaborates: “The SEC needs a non-correlation objection to deny ETH spot ETFs this year.”

Theory 2: Navigating Legal Challenges and ETF Denials

Johnsson also proposes that the investigation might help the SEC balance denying Ethereum ETFs with maintaining its legal stance against firms like Coinbase and Binance. He tweeted about the potential implications of this SEC strategy: “Following leaks of a SEC campaign seeking to investigate the security status of ETH, I have some thoughts as to how this may fit into the current SEC landscape.”

Theory 3: Responding to Regulatory Pressure

Finally, Johnsson suggests that the SEC’s probe might be a response to demands for stricter crypto regulation, as seen in calls from senators like Elizabeth Warren. The current political climate, marked by demands for firmer regulation, might be influencing the SEC’s approach.

Market Response to Regulatory Uncertainty

Amidst this regulatory scrutiny, Ethereum’s value has seen a downturn, currently priced at $3,523, a 6.48% decrease over the last week. This shift reflects the market’s reaction to the evolving regulatory landscape and investor uncertainty.

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