• The cryptocurrency market may experience volatility due to the upcoming Trump-Harris debate and the release of U.S. CPI data.

• Bitcoin faces downside risks as it nears a “death cross,” which could lead to a potential drop to $50,00.

The cryptocurrency market is set for potential volatility, with traders closely watching two key events. The events are the debate between former U.S. President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris on September 10 and the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11, 2024. According to Singapore-based QCP Capital, these events may have a significant impact on crypto prices, with market participants preparing for price swings.

According to QCP Capital’s latest market report, although crypto prices have somewhat stabilized after the recent decline, implied volatility has continued to rise. The firm pointed out that the Trump-Harris debate could provoke fluctuations in the market because both candidates are key political figures in the U.S. After this, the release of the CPI will affect the market sentiment as it is ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on the federal funds rate. 

These events make the market unending and may cause uncertainty in the market. The risk reversals for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) have shifted towards puts, indicating investors’ fears of downside risks. However, QCP Capital is bullish on the growth of crypto assets in the future, as has been seen in the short-term fluctuations. 

Trump-Harris Debate Sparks Market Speculation on Crypto Policies

While short-term price fluctuations are expected, QCP Capital maintains a “structurally bullish” outlook on cryptocurrencies. The firm also noted that large positions are being opened over the longer term, indicating that investors are using the recent price weakness to put together longer term positions. This confidence can be seen from the significant open interest in the call options for Bitcoin, with strike prices of $85,000, $100,000, and $120,000 for the March 2025 expiry.

In particular the Crypto community is particularly interested in the upcoming Trump-Harris debate as it may affect the policies related to cryptocurrencies. In July, Donald Trump changed his view on Bitcoin and started supporting the digital currency after once dismissing it. This has raised hope among crypto enthusiasts who believe that the Trump administration could bring positive policies to the sector. 

On the other hand, Kamala Harris has not publicly taken a specific stand on cryptocurrencies either.  Investors are curious whether she will advocate for stricter regulations or take a more open stance on digital currencies during the debate. This creates uncertainty in her role, which may, in turn, affect the market perception.

Potential “Death Cross” Formation Threatens Further Downside for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has fluctuated between small gains and losses, holding at approximately $56,858, marking a 3% increase at press time. On the technical front, the price of Bitcoin may be exposed to further downside pressure. The cryptocurrency is close to forming a “death cross,” a bearish indicator that appears when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. Traditionally this has been a sign that a sell off could be on the horizon. 

Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is on the verge of falling below the 200-day EMA, while the cryptocurrency is already trading below these crucial levels. If the death cross comes to life, BTC may drop to $50,000, as it would test the multi-month declining resistance line. Analysts warn that Bitcoin’s price may decline by as much as 10% in September if the technical patterns play out as expected.