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- Altcoin season may have quietly started weeks ago, but most gains stay limited and selective.
- Traders eye Fed’s September meeting, a possible liquidity shift could lift large tokens like Ethereum, Solana.
After a long stretch of flat movement, the altcoin market has begun to show early signs of activity. The Altcoin Season Index recently climbed from 34 to 50, signaling a shift. A trader, VirtualBacon, stated that the early stages of the altcoin season may have already started as far back as two to three weeks ago, though many have yet to recognize it.
The pattern this time is far more selective than before. In earlier cycles, many altcoins surged simultaneously. Now, gains are limited to a handful of major tokens, and price increases remain gradual. Supporting this trend, Bitcoin’s market dominance has slid to 61.5%, which historically indicates capital is starting to exit Bitcoin and spread into alternative tokens.
While excitement grows, traders are watching for bigger signals. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting in September is one key event. Though the Fed has left interest rates unchanged for now, some anticipate a potential adjustment to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). This rule determines how much cash banks must hold when buying U.S. government bonds.
2/x Why September? That’s when:
🔹 The next FOMC meeting happens.
🔹 The Fed may ease SLR rules for banks.
🔹 The Treasury may refill its TGA, draining liquidity.
🔹 Liquidity conditions could shift drastically.It’s the real pivot window I’m watching. pic.twitter.com/AF2ti55Ln9
— VirtualBacon (@VirtualBacon0x) August 4, 2025
Caution and Expectations Rise Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting
If the SLR rule is to be relaxed, banks might have more flexibility to purchase additional bonds using less capital, which might add to liquidity in capital markets. Meanwhile, the Treasury is replenishing its general account, which is typically a source of cash drain. The net effect remains indeterminate, but any liquidity boost can be supportive of risk assets, including digital currencies.
In spite of this possible shift, VirtualBacon indicates growth within the altcoin market will remain measured. He references Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and Binance Coin (BNB) as most likely to lead within this cycle. He goes on to say that although larger tokens have promising prospects, smaller altcoins pose more risk and may not keep up.
Crypto Rover, another market analyst, offers a similar warning. “Not every altcoin will perform well,” he said. “This phase is all about survival.” He believes that earlier rallies rewarded tokens fueled by hype, but this time, outcomes will depend more on solid backing and real-world use.
ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB: Key Levels and Signals to Watch Now
Ethereum is trading at $3,627.76, 2% higher in 24 hours, after briefly hitting $3,700 earlier today. Traders predict a narrow range of $3,480 to $3,620 to remain in place unless the digital currency crosses $3,750. That would see Ethereum move to around $4,200 should bullish pressure prevail.
Solana, which trades near $166, has given back some of its gains after skyrocketing more than 40% last month to near $206. Nevertheless, chart clues such as a golden cross and bullish divergence still indicate room to head higher. Technical analysts noted resistance within the range around $175 to $178, upside to $190 or even $210 if momentum recovers.
Ripple’s XRP trades around $3.04 following a 1.18% increase in the last 24 hours. It climbed to $3.65 in mid-July prior to a 17% drop. Investor sentiment remains bullish, with $1.2 billion repurchased recently. Analysts also observe a low NVT ratio and are waiting to see the SEC’s decision due by August 15, which can influence price direction.
BNB trades at around $758 following a marginal 0.06% increase. The token recently hit a new all-time high near $861. The present structure remains solid above the $600 demand area, and experts await a potential shift in direction toward the $860 to $900 area in case conditions remain positive.
