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- An expert from Bloomberg forecasts a 90% probability of Bitcoin Spot ETF approval by January 10th, specifically for industry giants BlackRock and JPMorgan.
- The anticipated approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs for BlackRock and JPMorgan is driving investor excitement, reflecting positively on Bitcoin’s market value.
The discussion around the likelihood of Bitcoin Spot ETF approval by January has been a hot topic since late 2023. Recent reports by CNF indicate that the increasing value of Bitcoin is closely tied to investor excitement about the potential approval of BlackRock’s BTC Spot ETF. Currently, we are holding onto a strong belief in a 90% chance of approval by January 10.
A recent tweet by a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency community has echoed this sentiment, expressing a confident 90% probability of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals coming this January.
Here's a view of the Cointucky Derby starting gate as of this morning. We're focused on these 11 spot #Bitcoin ETF filers. Expecting most of these N/A's to be filled over the next ~week.
Still looking for potential approval orders in that Jan 8 to Jan 10 window. pic.twitter.com/HYdnPuiaRx
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 2, 2024
Potential for Rejection
Despite this optimism, there remains a contrasting perspective that suggests a potential for rejection. Senior Analyst Vetle Lunde of K33 Research recently released a report suggesting a mere 5% chance of an ETF rejection. This comes as public comments continue to be submitted to the SEC, reflecting a wide array of viewpoints and concerns from various stakeholders.
The cryptocurrency community has recently voiced two primary concerns regarding the approval of Bitcoin ETFs:
- Empowering Authoritarian Regimes and Undermining Democratic Values: The decentralized nature of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, known for circumventing traditional financial channels, makes them attractive to authoritarian regimes seeking to evade sanctions and exert greater control over their citizens’ finances. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs could further exacerbate this issue, enabling these regimes to further undermine democratic values.
- Potential Risks to Democratic Institutions: The widespread adoption of a spot ETF could inadvertently aid in these efforts, potentially weakening democratic institutions and further enriching oppressive governments at the expense of human rights and civil liberties.
Market Speculation – A ‘Sell the News’ Event?
There is a prevalent belief that the BTC ETF approval might lead to a “sell the news” event. Vetle Lunde from K33 Research presents this topic in this week’s “Ahead of the Curve” segment. With Bitcoin reaching $46,000 amid a CME frenzy on ETF anticipation, the market is at a crossroads.
Lunde assigns a 75% probability to the ‘sell-the-news’ scenario, with a 20% chance of approval and a 5% possibility of ETF denial, despite recent positive signals from meetings and updated S-1 prospectuses with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Bitcoin Price Update
As per the latest CNF report, Bitcoin’s price has soared beyond $45,000 for the first time in 21 months, spurred by anticipation of BlackRock’s BTC Spot ETF approval by January 06. This bullish trend has also positively impacted shares of major bitcoin-related companies in pre-market trading. The included graph offers a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s recent performance. As of today, Bitcoin is priced at $45,179.1, marking a 6.07% increase over the past week.
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The crypto community and investors are closely monitoring these developments, understanding that the approval or rejection of Bitcoin Spot ETFs will have significant implications for the market and beyond.
