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- Analyst Rekt Capital identifies Bitcoin’s position in the final stage of the halving retrace, indicating an imminent uptrend resumption.
- The cryptocurrency’s current re-accumulation phase and whale accumulation activities further bolster the outlook for a potential breakout.
Over the last week, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has seen a healthy uptick amid strong inflows seen by the US spot Bitcoin ETFs once again. As of press time, the BTC is trading above $67,000 with a market cap of $1.320 trillion.
Market analysts believe that Bitcoin is still in the re-accumulation phase before the post-halving rally resumes, and thus it is providing the last bargain opportunity.
Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital has outlined Bitcoin’s current position in the final stage of the halving retrace, signaling an imminent uptrend resumption. In 2024, the Halving Retrace plunged to -23.6%, marking the deepest retrace within the ongoing cycle. This phase represents the ultimate opportunity for bargain buying immediately post-halving.
Having concluded the Halving Retrace, Bitcoin now lays the groundwork for the Re-Accumulation Range. This range typically emerges a few weeks before the halving event and extends until a breakout occurs in the subsequent weeks. Notably, substantial accumulation by Bitcoin whales is currently underway in the market.
Spanning approximately $60,000 to $70,000, the Re-Accumulation Range witnesses intermittent wicks extending beyond these bounds. However, Rekt Capital added that this accumulation phase may extend over several weeks, potentially persisting for up to 150 days or 5 months. Upon breaking out from this range and entering the parabolic uptrend phase (indicated in green), Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth.
Top Five Indicators for Bitcoin Bull Run
The indications provided by five on-chain metrics, emphasized by analyst “ELI5 of TLDR” in a recent post on May 19, indicate that it’s only the beginning.
- Bitcoin Market Dominance: In past crypto bull markets, they typically commence with a significant Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, as traders tend to divest from altcoins during the preceding bear market cycle. Conversely, when BTC dominance decreases and altseason commences, it signifies the subsequent phase of the bull cycle, edging it closer to its conclusion. Currently, Bitcoin’s market dominance remains elevated, standing at slightly over 56%, as per data from TradingView.
- Bitcoin MVRV Score: The Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, coupled with its z-score statistical correction (MVRV Z), assesses the asset’s present market value in relation to its historical average value. Typically, this ratio peaks at approximately six during cycle peaks. Currently, the score stands at less than three and has not surpassed six since March 2021.
- Puell Multiple: The Puell Multiple, another metric indicative of cycle peaks, has not yet aligned with such peaks. This metric is derived by dividing the daily value of Bitcoin mined by the yearly moving average of that value. Following the halving on April 20, the Puell Multiple fell below one. Typically, peaks exceeding three correspond to cycle tops. However, during the 2024 price surge in mid-March, it only reached 2.4.
- HODL waves: Charts depicting BTC distribution among various cohorts based on hodl waves also signal bullish sentiment for Bitcoin. Realized cap hodl waves offer a macro perspective on the Bitcoin holdings of recent buyers versus those of long-term holders. A decline in peaks among younger cohorts indicates that selling pressure has diminished, per the Crypto News Flash report.
- Bitcoin Miner Revenue Per Hash: The fifth positive on-chain indicator is miner revenue per hash, reflecting miners’ earnings. Although it naturally declines as network difficulty rises, ELI5 observed that the previous two surges to $0.3 per terahash coincided with peak market cycles.
