- Bitcoin follows a predictable cycle, marked by halving events every three years and ten months, which aim to reduce BTC supply and are tied to miners’ rewards.
- CryptoCon’s forecast suggests the next bull run starting in November 2024, reaching an all-time high in 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC), currently trading at $25,878, is poised to challenge long-term holders with a “mid-cycle slump” before embarking on a bullish rally in late 2024, as indicated by a fresh BTC price model. According to the originator of this model, the well-known analyst CryptoCon, the “November 28th Cycles Theory,” predicts that Bitcoin will reach its all-time high in 2025.
Maybe, I have finally cracked the #Bitcoin code.
The November 28th Cycles Theory has held the key.
Using 4-year time cycles against my Theory, produces Bitcoins exact behavior in time since its inception.
Cycles are centered around the… pic.twitter.com/EI8BUk285I
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) September 7, 2023
Bitcoin’s Predictable Cycles
Bitcoin follows a clearly defined cycle that lasts approximately three years and ten months. The halving of miners’ rewards punctuates this cycle, representing Bitcoin’s sole monetary policy measure, and this event is highly predictable.
In practice, a halving occurs precisely every 210,000 blocks, usually requiring around 10 minutes to mine a block. Theoretically, this means that a halving should happen roughly every four years. However, in reality, the average block mining time has consistently been slightly less than 10 minutes so far.
This implies that, on average, a halving event has taken place approximately every three years and ten months.
The inaugural block of the Bitcoin blockchain was successfully mined on January 3, 2009, and the first halving occurred in November 2012. Since then, there have been three halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Interestingly, in each of these instances, the subsequent year witnessed a substantial surge in Bitcoin’s value (2013, 2017, and 2021), followed by a subsequent year marked by a bearish market (2014, 2018, and 2022).
The primary purpose of the halving is to diminish the quantity of BTCs available in the market. Compelling miners achieve this by selling the BTCs they earn on the market to cover the substantial expenses associated with mining, particularly electricity costs. When miners receive fewer BTCs as rewards, they consequently have fewer to sell, reducing the overall supply, albeit not immediately.
Understanding the Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Supply
The implication is that, on average, a halving event has transpired about every three years and ten months. The first block on the Bitcoin blockchain was successfully mined on January 3, 2009, while the initial halving event unfolded in November 2012.
To date, three separate halving events have occurred in 2012, 2016, and 2020. In all three instances, the subsequent year saw a substantial upswing in Bitcoin’s market value (2013, 2017, and 2021), followed by a year characterized by a bear market (2014, 2018, and 2022).
The primary objective of the halving mechanism is to curtail the quantity of BTCs circulating in the market. It does so by compelling miners to sell the BTCs they acquire on the market to offset the significant costs associated with mining, particularly electricity expenses. When miners receive reduced BTC rewards, they have a smaller quantity to sell, ultimately reducing overall supply, although this effect takes time and effort.
A subsequent stage, known as the speculative bubble, consistently follows this pattern, which is then succeeded by the third phase, referred to as the bear market.
CryptoCon’s Bitcoin Price Projection
CryptoCon outlines that the forthcoming bullish phase is expected to kick off on November 28, 2024, with the anticipation of reaching the next all-time high from early November to late December of the following year. They project the subsequent bear market low between early November and late December 2026.
It’s important to note that CryptoCon isn’t making specific price predictions but rather focusing on the trajectory of the forthcoming price cycle.
Indeed, while there may be uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price direction in theory, there is a high level of certainty concerning the halving cycle. This entails consistently updating BTC’s monetary policy at intervals of approximately three years and ten months.
CryptoCon refers to this forecast as “The November 28th Cycles Theory” because historically, the commencement of the bull run, the peak of the speculative bubble, and the lowest point of the subsequent bear market have aligned closely with this date. Notably, November 28th also marks the occurrence of Bitcoin’s first-ever halving event in 2012.
The current phase aligns with the intermission period within the fourth cycle, continuing until the upcoming halving event. Historically, this phase has proven to be the lengthiest in the cycle, characterized by Bitcoin’s price hovering at approximately half of its historical peak value (e.g., $69,000 in November 2021).
