• The data shows that there is an interesting relationship between the US 10-year Treasury and Bitcoin’s halving price rally.
• The upcoming Bitcoin halving could potentially catapult Bitcoin (BTC) from its current level to a new all-time high of $150,000.

According to a chart shared by TXMC on X (formerly Twitter), there is a close relationship between the US 10-year Treasury and the Bitcoin price rally. According to the data shared, the halving coincidentally arrived at local lows in treasury yields each of the first 3 times.

Market commentators point out that when investors turn to government-issued bonds for safety, risky assets like Bitcoin (BTC) underperform. The opposite of this also happens with low government bond yields causing risky assets to experience greater growth and adoption. TXMC Notes;

#BTC halving coincidentally arrived at local lows in treasury yields each of the first 3 times. Following these moments, risk assets rose broadly while growth expectations also increased. Thus was born the myopic Bitcoin narrative of supply shocks. However, it was always macro in nature.

The analyst further notes that in the last three rises it has started in earnest with the 10-year yield below 2 percent. It is currently above 4.3 percent. However, the analyst is quick to point out that this analysis is not to “claim a direct causal relationship between yields and BTC prices. It’s about the broad directional relationship between markets, money, and the economy.”

This trend was most evident during the third halving where in May 2020, Yields fell below 0.8 percent about 45 days before the event and remained at those levels for months. At the same time, BTC rose by about 20 percent. In comparison, during the second halving in July 2016, BTC rose about 10 percent over the four months following the halving. In the first halving in 2012, the 10-year yield continued to rise for four months but fell below 1.60 percent by November 28, 2012.

Historically, Bitcoin halving is in itself a bullish event. When mining rewards are cut in half, supply is reduced, thus driving demand and prices higher. As CNF has reported, experts and researchers expect Bitcoin to rise to between $45,000 and $250,000 by the time of the upcoming halving.

Read More: Bitcoin 2024: Experts Reveal Price Predictions from $45,000 to $250,000

In addition, the market is closely watching the developments surrounding Bitcoin spot ETFs. After years of delays and denials, the SEC is under pressure to approve what could possibly be multiple Bitcoin spot ETF approvals by the end of the year or in the first quarter of 2024. This is a major event that would attract billions of dollars of investment into the market and help drive the price of BTC.

The majority of experts expect Bitcoin to be trading above the all-time high of $69,000 reached two years ago by 2024. The long-term upside target is the coveted $100,000 price. If achieved, Bitcoin will see a clear path to $150,000.

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