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- Bitcoin faces significant pressure, sliding below $59K due to upcoming large-scale repayments.
- Mt. Gox trustee’s announcement of major repayments triggers market concerns.
Bitcoin is experiencing downward pressure as it slides below $59,000 following an announcement from the Mt. Gox trustee about the start of a major repayment. The trustee plans to distribute over 140,000 BTC to clients affected by the 2014 hack. This development has raised concerns about the potential market impact due to the large volume of Bitcoin expected to hit the market soon.
As highlighted in today’s CNF YouTube video, Bitcoin is currently trading at $60,700, marking a significant drop and reaching its lowest point since early May. Alex Thorn from Galaxy suggests that the actual number of bitcoins distributed might be lower than anticipated.
His research indicates that only about 95,000 coins will be released initially, with 65,000 going to individual creditors who are expected to hold onto their assets rather than sell immediately.
Anticipated Impact of Repayments
This group of creditors has historically resisted selling despite various lucrative offers. This resistance is partly due to the substantial increase in Bitcoin’s value since the hack and the associated capital gains taxes. Thorn also notes that most of the partners in claims funds are long-term Bitcoin investors rather than short-term traders, indicating that the selling pressure might be less severe than feared.
This scenario suggests a potentially smaller impact on Bitcoin’s price than the market might expect. To put that number in perspective, the immediate liquidation of Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETF, which at last check held 167,375 Bitcoin, would be just less than the anticipated Mt. Gox repayment.
Market Reactions and Predictions
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, commented,
We think fewer coins will be distributed than people think and that it will cause less Bitcoin sell pressure than the market expects.
Thorn’s research suggests that 75% of creditors will opt for the “early” payout in July, resulting in a distribution of about 95,000 coins.
Of that, Thorn believes 65,000 coins will go to individual creditors, but he thinks they may prove more “diamond-handed” than most expect. He highlights their resistance to years of “compelling and aggressive offers from claims funds,” along with the capital gains taxes involved, given Bitcoin’s 140-fold increase since the bankruptcy.
Reiterating previous predictions by CNF that Bitcoin might face a downturn, as of today, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $60,844.59 with a decrease of 2.51% in the past day and 7.37% in the past week.
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