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- The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart indicates that the price is “still cheap” as it imitates the 2021 bull cycle, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed above 70 for weeks before declining.
- Meanwhile, Standard Chartered believes that the asset would decline to below $80k as macroeconomic concerns continue to affect confidence.
Bitcoin (BTC,) has printed losses across all the notable trading sessions, declining by 0.77% in the last 24 hours, 2.5% in the last seven days, 15.8% in the last 30 days, and 16.7% in the last 90 days to trade at $81.5k at press time. However, analysts are still optimistic as they observe bullish patterns in some reliable market metrics.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Analyzing multiple theses by renowned traders, we found that the Bitcoin price is “still cheap”. In fact, analyst Samson Mow believes that the asset could hit $1 million in 2025, as featured in our recent coverage.
Bitcoin’s possible rebound is confirmed by the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, which is represented by a “logarithmic growth curve” with rainbow colours showing its long-term trend. Looking at the movement in the previous two cycles, we found that the curve touched the “Seriously sell!” zone. Meanwhile, this has not been the case this cycle. The curve is still hovering within the “Is this a bubble?” zone. Interestingly, the Relative Strength Index readings also suggest an imitation of the 2021 cycle.
In 2017, for instance, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI reading stayed above 70 for multiple weeks as the asset made multiple highs within the period. However, the asset and the RSI recorded a bearish divergence in 2021 before falling by almost 50%. Later, the market recovered and entered another bearish phase.
In the current market cycle, the RSI stayed above 70 for a total of six weeks before taking a nosedive to below the neutral zone of 50. Fascinatingly, this mirrors the 2021 correction where the asset declined by 50%. A similar decline could see Bitcoin falling to $54k.
Further, comparing the cycles using the BTC.D, we found that this metric reached almost multi-month lows during the past two cycle tops. Currently, this is on an upsurge to a level not seen for the past four years. Fascinatingly, this aligns with a recent analysis of a CryptoQuant contributor, Ibrahim Cesar. In his latest thesis, he predicted that Bitcoin could rebound to hit $180k. According to him, the recent movement of Bitcoin mirrors the previous bull cycles.
In summary, those investing in Bitcoin at these levels have the potential to gain over 100% in dollar terms without even waiting a year. Buying in the right regions and at the right times can present significant opportunities.
Standard Chartered Position
Speaking on the current trend, Standard Chartered predicted more “bloodbath” as its analysts forecast Bitcoin to make a decisive move below $80k. As explained in our last analysis, multiple factors have been linked to this downward trend including the concerns on inflation, interest rates, and U.S. economic policy.
Standard Chartered also believes that Bitcoin could stage a rebound to hit $500k by 2029. As indicated in our earlier discussion, the bank expects this significant move to be fueled by institutional adoption, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds.
