• The Bitcoin price briefly climbed above the $10,000 mark and is now in the middle of a large resistance zone which, if it breaks, could trigger the next big bull run.
• However, some experts are warning that the large price gains of the last few weeks could be a trap orchestrated by whales around the Halving.

After Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its annual low of $3,700 in mid-March, the $10,000 mark is now within reach again. Over the course of yesterday, the Bitcoin price broke out of its sideways movement and rose from below $9,300 to briefly $10,070. Bitcoin thus reached a five-digit value for the first time since February 24. However, the mark did not last very long. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price consolidated just below $9,800.

The latest pump shows that the bulls currently, with only a few days left until Bitcoin Halving, have the market under firm control and could possibly target the $10,500 mark. Based on a purely technical analysis of the Bitcoin price, the majority of analysts are currently in a strong bullish mood. As Credible Crypto noted, Bitcoin has overcome the first two of three hurdles to reach a new all-time high.

As Bitcoin closed above $5,200 on the weekly chart and later on the monthly chart above the $6,400 support level, the price is now ready to take the last hurdle, the $14,000 mark, according to Credible Crypto. However, as the analyst also determined, the “monster resistance zone” between $9,700 and $10,500 which has to be breached first.

Is the sharp spike in the price of Bitcoin a Halving trap?

Bitcoin’s on-chain data currently looks more bullish than ever before. The number of daily active Bitcoin addresses has increased by 47% since the beginning of 2020, a growth rate that Bitcoin’s network has not seen since the bull run of 2017. As Danny Scott, CEO of CoinCorner, pointed out via Twitter, the number of new Bitcoin addresses that have sent their first transaction is approaching 500,000, bringing the current figure to the level of May 2017, when the Bitcoin market was far from its peak of the bull run.

At the same time, Glassnode’s data also show that the number of addresses with smaller Bitcoin balances (greater than 0.01 BTC; greater than 0.1 BTC and greater than 1 BTC and smaller than 10 BTC) has increased sharply in recent weeks, with all three categories at an all-time high. However, despite this very bullish data, which points to a sharp increase in interest in Bitcoin, caution may be advised.

The sharp spike in the last few weeks could also be orchestrated by BTC whales. As Santiment noted in a recent analysis, whales could use the Halving to pump Bitcoin in advance to offload their assets shortly before. As Santiment found out, there has been a noticeable change in the way large investors have behaved in recent weeks. This, according to the analyst firm, could be a signal that whales are preparing to dump Bitcoin at a peak before the Halving:

One of the best investment approaches is the following: spot “what the crowd expects” and bet against bet. You can’t do it on daily basis. Not even every week. The crowd doesn’t have “consensus” all the time. But when it does, the smart investor knows that this is the time to act.  The price will do something completely different from what the crowd expects.

According to Santiment, this kind of market manipulation strategy has already been observed during previous Halvings. However, a look at the statistics of the largest Bitcoin whales (more than 1,000 BTC) does not fully confirm the analysis. The number of Bitcoin holders with more than 1,000 BTC has fallen from 2,146 to 2,124 since the “Black Thursday” (March 12, 2020). However, whales with a balance greater than 10,000 BTC have slightly increased from 107 to 109.

Expert opinions: Will there be a Halving dump?

In an interview with Bloomberg, Christel Quek, Chief Commercial Officer and co-founder of Bolt Global, commented on the likelihood of BTC crashing after the Halving:

This is an unprecedented time as liquidity remains a priority for investors fleeing equity markets. Therefore, while Bitcoin should rise into $10,000s after the halving, it could be followed with a price drop as investors engage in profit taking. No level of technical support can stand when the economy is drained.

Charles Hayter, co-founder and CEO of CryptoCompare, highlighted the specific characteristics of the Halving in 2020 and a possible capitulation of the miners. At the same time he stated that he does not expect any major dumping:

The crypto market in 2020 is very different from previous halvings, and the impact of miners selling their Bitcoins differs substantially this time around. This will likely dampen the post-halving impacts from miner selling. The impact of Covid-19 so close to the halving and Bitcoin’s correlation to equity markets means we may not see significant surges in price due to the Halving.

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