• According to Hogan, there are 4 likely scenarios, or dates, at which Ripple could settle its lawsuit with the SEC. 
• The most likely scenario is after the end of the “discovery” phase in September 2021.

In a new YouTube video, Jeremy Hogan of the Orlando (USA) law firm Hogan & Hogan talked about the pre-trial conference of the SEC vs. Ripple litigation on February 22 and what will follow. As the attorney noted, the date is a standard initial hearing in federal court.

It is a telephone hearing, with only one attorney from each side participating in the call as well. The purpose of the hearing is to reach agreement on the timeline for the litigation. Ripple and the SEC are required to submit a proposed “Case Management Order” by Feb. 15, setting out all the deadlines for the litigation. Thus, “we will not see the timeframe for about ten more days,” as Hogan noted.

4 settlement scenarios between Ripple and the SEC

As Hogan elicited in the video, he is able to estimate how long each deadline will be set as part of the process based on his professional experience. The first important date is the “discovery deadline.” Both parties can ask questions of the other side and request documents during this time.

“The SEC will be seeking boxes of documents from Ripple regarding its coin offerings, sales material, etc.,” Hogan said. This phase could be completed within 8 to 9 months, around September, according to Hogan. After that, lawyers for both parties will assess what the chances of success are:

The lawyers look at the evidence and draw legal conclusions on how likely they are to win and based on that conclusion they approach an offer of settlement. Up until then you’d be settling based on guesses and this is a billion dollar issue – Ripple does not want to guess-settle.

But the first settlement scenario could happen before then. Scenario #1 could be that new SEC Chairman Gary Gensler seeks a quick settlement within the first few months “because this was a battle started, to an extent, by the previous administration and the new head of the SEC might decide this is not the right time for this battle.”

Settlement in late 2021?

Settlement scenario #2, meanwhile, could take place after the discovery phase, when both sides realize their strength. As Hogan explains, there will also be mediation at that time, with a third party attorney working with the parties to try to reach a settlement agreement. This is the time when a settlement is most likely to be reached:

Mediation works – more than 50% of the time, and that’s why Federal Courts REQUIRE it for every case.  The Ripple case will have a full day mediation where the parties will try to work out a settlement and that is where the case is most likely to resolve.

Jokingly adding to his explanation, Hogan continued, “Once the Case Management Order comes out and there is a scheduled mediation, you might want to pick up a few more XRP the day before the mediation. I shouldn’t have said that – you will now forget what I just said.”

If mediation also fails to produce a settlement, the process could drag on until about October 2021, the deadline for a “dispositive motion.” This is a motion will decide the entire case. As Hogan discussed, the litigation could then be decided in a “summary judgment,” which could be in late 2021.

The 4th likely scenario, according to Hogan, is that the case continues to summary judgment and the losing side appeals to the 2nd Circuit. The case could then extend into early 2023, as the average time from notice to disposition by the appropriate court is 10.6 months.

“If you are excited about getting the “Howey Test” changed to the “Ripple Test” then this is the timeframe,” Hogan said.

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