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- PlanB, still loyal to the Stock-to-Flow model, says Bitcoin could hit $100K by 2023.
- Bloomberg analysts say the crypto asset is on a pattern that forecasts $53K and beyond.
As Bitcoin (BTC) oscillates about the $40K level, PlanB and Bloomberg’s crypto analysts have given their respective forecasts of the digital asset. The former is well known for creating the popular Bitcoin price indicator – the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.
For a while, the model set up a good reputation, until March-July 2020, right after the third halving. Bitcoin managed to catch up to the model in Jan. 2021, only to part ways from its optimistic predictions since March 2021. One of the most notable divergences between the two was May’s 50 percent BTC price crash.
The king coin managed to get back on track by Nov, rising to almost $70K. This reinvigorated hope in investors that the model’s $100K end-of-year prediction would come to be. When this too failed, the model bred further disappointment and a sense of unreliability, especially since it did not seem to take into consideration the numerous external factors affecting Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin price forecast by PlanB
And even though PlanB acknowledges the model’s weaknesses, he is still confident in its formula – now predicting a $100K BTC by 2023. In response to one Twitter user’s concern of the model’s recent failure, PlanB tweeted:
It does not concern me yet, but it certainly leads to the question: do we need to refit the model to this new lower data, or do we have to be patient and finish this cycle first because prices can be higher in the 2nd half of the cycle (bringing the average back to $100K).
If it is to attain this price level, Bitcoin will need to gain 125.92 percent in the next 10 months. In the history of the cryptocurrency’s year-end bull runs, such a scenario has only happened twice – in 2018 and 2020. Considering this pattern makes the prediction appear highly likely.
Nonetheless, external developments – such as the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), still come into play. Many countries are pushing for these digital currencies in an attempt to regain control of digital transactions. Binance’s CEO Changpeng Zhao has previously discussed how CBDCs’ emergence threatens crypto adoption.
Bloomberg analysis
As for Bloomberg analysts, their forecast is based on a rare technical pattern shown by Bitcoin on the daily chart. The analysis suggests that the “Reversed Head and Shoulder” pattern indicates $53K as a potential target for the cryptocurrency. According to the analysts, should Bitcoin break above the neckline resistance, then its next stop would be new local highs.
Achieving $53K would mean an 18 percent surge, in addition to a full reversal and exit from the 100-day correctional state. At this point, however, BTC would still be trading at a 20 percent discount from its $69K all-time high.
There is no assurance of this view, but it helps to compare it to indicators such as volume and relative strength indicator (RSI). Open interest shows that the trading volumes are still low – an unhealthy sign for the crypto market. RSI, on the other hand, is in the neutral zone, suggesting room for improvement.
