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- Some analysts predict that Bitcoin will surge towards $75,000 before the next big dump, mirroring last year’s pattern.
- Others say the higher volume and lower prices indicate strong bearish action, and that $50,000 is looking more likely in the short term.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell below $65,000 for the first time this year, continuing bearish momentum that started in mid-January. Analysts are divided on what comes next, with some projecting another dip to test $50,000, while others point to historical patterns that show it will recover first before another big dump.
At press time, BTC changes hands at $66,260, starting the week with a 2.6% drop as trading volume more than doubled to $37 billion.
Trader Roman (@Roman_Trading) believes that the continued correlation of increasing volume and dipping prices shows that the bears are firmly in control. He noted:
Volume increasing while price is going down is the definition of strong bearish price action. We should expect trend to continue lower, especially to 50-52k area. Likely get a bounce there but ultimately I’m expecting lower after that.
Even before the projected drop, Bitcoin is on track to record its worst first quarter of the year in eight years. Data from CoinGlass shows that the quarterly returns now stand at -21.82%, twice as bad as last year’s Q1 return of -11.8%.
It would be the lowest return since hitting -49.7% in 2018, the current record. It would be back-to-back losses for BTC after it recorded -23% returns in the last quarter of last year, its worst since 2018.
Bitcoin’s Institutional Exits
While it’s battling micro factors, Bitcoin has also been a victim of macro shocks that have affected the entire capital market, including stocks. The latest is rising uncertainty over US tariffs by the Trump government.
The president recently announced that he would increase the global tariff to 15% from the 10% he had announced a day earlier, despite a Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs. Speaking on the current market, Orbit Markets co-founder Caroline Mauron stated:
Macro uncertainty is now weighing on the market, from Iran geopolitical tensions to US tariffs whiplash, and may lead to another test of that level.
This uncertainty has seen some of the institutional participants start dumping their BTC. Over the weekend, mining company Bitdeer sold off its entire Bitcoin stash. The company had started 2026 with 2,000 BTC, but has now sold it all off and liquidates the new tokens it mines.
The company dismissed claims that it was selling the tokens due to the ongoing price dips, stating:
We are currently evaluating multiple non-binding powered land acquisition opportunities, and we believe it is prudent to prepare liquidity now.
Hedge funds that spent hundreds of millions of dollars on Bitcoin ETFs are also unwinding their positions. Brevan Howard, a $20 billion asset management, has sold off most of its stake in the BlackRock iBIT ETF. Starting in Q4, the company has sold 86% of its ETF shares, with its holdings dropping from $2.4 billion to $275 million.
As CNF reported, analysts had projected that two important reports from the US Federal Reserve published last week would greatly affect Bitcoin’s price, but they failed to cause significant movement.
