Analysts project the SEC to grant approval for a Bitcoin ETF by January 2024, with trading set to commence in February or March. The approval of a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. is anticipated to attract fresh capital to the crypto markets. Additionally, it could be perceived as a triumph for the crypto industry and a setback for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), possibly influencing a more accommodating approach from the SEC in the future, as suggested by JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a report on Wednesday. However, the analysts express skepticism regarding the likelihood of these factors or arguments. They noted:

“First, instead of fresh capital entering the crypto industry to be invested in the newly-approved ETFs, we see as a more likely scenario existing capital shifting from existing bitcoin products such as the Grayscale bitcoin trust, bitcoin futures ETFs and publicly listed bitcoin mining companies, into the newly-approved spot bitcoin ETFs”.

2. Circle IPO

Stablecoin issuer Circle is poised for a potential stock market listing by April. Although the company’s initial plan to merge with Concord Acquisition in a $4.5-billion deal fell through, Circle’s valuation surged to $9 billion following a revised merger in early 2022. Despite a 56% decline in USDC’s market capitalization, from its peak of $55.9 billion in June 2022 to $24.6 billion, Circle remains a significant player in the crypto industry.

3. FTX Reopening

The official announcement of FTX’s successful bid may take place in December 2023, with the exchange expected to become operational by May or June 2024. Projections indicate that FTX is likely to regain its status as one of the top three exchanges within the next twelve months. SEC Chair Gary Gensler expressed openness to FTX reopening operations during DC Fintech Week, emphasizing the importance of compliance with legal requirements for such a move.

4. Bitcoin Halving

The crypto community is largely waiting for the next Bitcoin halving season scheduled next year in mid-2024. By deliberately restricting the introduction of new Bitcoin into circulation, the scarcity resulting from the halving has the potential to impact Bitcoin’s price, possibly triggering a bullish market trend. Bitcoin has experienced three such bullish phases since its establishment in 2011, with each lasting between 12 to 18 months post-halving.

5. Ethereum IEP-4844 Upgrade

The Cancun-Deneb upgrade for Ethereum, featuring EIP-4844, is anticipated to take place in Q1 of 2024. This upgrade aims to enhance the scalability, security, and efficiency of the Ethereum network, optimizing its functionality and reducing gas fees through the implementation of proto-danksharding.

6. Fed Rate Cuts

While the crypto market already has several developments in the line, it might also receive a major push from the macro developments. Many analysts are already expecting the first interest rate cuts by March-June 2024. If so, it will infuse more capital inflow into risk-ON assets thereby driving further rally into the crypto market.